AI May Create More Jobs Than You Think
AI May Create More Jobs Than You Think
💼 Experts say artificial intelligence will take jobs but also create new ones
As many of you know, one of the reasons I started A.I. Supremacy is to talk about the future of work, automation and our changing role in the world due to emerging technologies.
Note: I’ll be traveling to Singapore this week so I’m not sure how active I’ll be writing wise, just a heads up. So let’s talk about the future of jobs. Our guest post today is by Giles.
Giles Crouch is a writer I’ve been reading for many years, who is prolific on Medium, among other places. He has appeared in Forbes, Wired & National Geographic and I admire the lens in which he analyzes futurism and technology’s impact on culture, society and trends.
I wanted to get his take on A.I. and the future of work.
He’s an active Digital / Cultural Anthropologist. Recently he’s been analyzing A.I. and digital platforms, and how society is adopting A.I. among other things. I really value op-eds of experts who bring a fresh perspective on A.I. and enjoy having guest writers on the Newsletter (archives).
If you find the topics I cover worth reading, why not share the Newsletter with a college, friend or family member.
Okay Giles, so take it away….
By
Throughout history, when new technologies come along that are revolutionary, the biggest fear in the industrialized world has been loss of jobs. Curiously, in hunter-gatherer societies, some of which still exist, this is rarely a concern. But then, they’ve never had to work as hard as we in the industrialised world.
As Artificial Intelligence (AI) through the branch known as Generative AI careened into the industrialized world like a bullet train last year, a good deal of discussion has been around the potential for job losses on a massive scale. Heating up once again the topic of Universal Basic Income (UBI), because we’re about to be unemployed. We are not. In fact, we’re likely to end up creating more jobs and more wealth.
Part of the problem with predicting job losses due to technology is that these projections are often made by economists and business analysts. With little attention paid to the adjacent sociocultural changes that happen. Renowned economist Dr. Carlota Perez however, understood this very well. She laid out a framework in her seminal thesis “Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital” which was published in 2002.
To understand what may happen with AI and jobs, we need some historical context. As has been said, history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Since AI is a revolutionary technology, we are about to undergo significant sociocultural changes. Not only will jobs change, but so will political systems, business models, the arts, bureaucracy and more. AI impacts all areas of society.
Thinking only terms of jobs in economic terms is a mugs game. We need to take a more holistic, whole-of-society view.
A History Of Not Losing Jobs To Technology
Thing is, we’ve been here before. A few times. At the outset of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, most societies were pastoral. Then along came the loom for textiles, the water wheel and then the steam engine in the 19th century. You’re likely familiar with the Luddites as well. They broke machinery in factories and hated technology. Except they didn’t hate technology. They were fine with it. They just wanted better wages and more structured work hours.
The arrival of the automobile lead to many jobs, except for horses. It is estimated that some 20 million horses became unemployed in the 19th century and early years of the 20th century. Largely due to the automobile and aeroplane. Agricultural jobs were decimated at the beginning of the first Industrial Revolution and have continued to decline.
Over the years there has been a lot of research into jobs lost through automation. There’s a great timeline on Quartz if you’re interested. Even economist Keynes at one point said many jobs would be lost to technology, but at the same time, perhaps more would be created. One of the founding thinkers of sociology, Max Webber in 1909 stated that the more technological a society becomes, the greater the division of labour.
The evidence is overwhelming that technology does end up creating more jobs, though naturally, some will be lost.
Will Artificial Intelligence Be Different?
In the end run, probably not. What may be different this time is which jobs will be lost. And how that may impact society as a whole. Part of the challenge with AI is that it is evolving incredibly fast and in unpredictable ways. Its greatest short-term impact will likely be in jobs that are highly process driven in the knowledge sector.
It is unlikely to have much impact on skilled trades such as plumbers, electricians, carpenters and construction workers. Lest you think AI driven robots are coming, not really. At least not anytime soon. Robots are still too slow and aren’t as dextrous as humans. Someday however, they will be. But by that time, we will need them. As populations age and it’s harder to replace humans, robots will be needed. The greater risk is that we can’t develop robots fast enough to address this coming gap.
Back to today and AI directly. Some very recent research by academics from Princeton, NYU and University of Pennsylvania propose that the careers most at risk to AI are English teachers, legal, accounting, commodities and investments. Although when it comes to finance, it is important to note that JP Morgan Chase has banned the use of ChatGPT in the bank. It is likely other financial institutions will do similar.
ChatGPT of course, is but one aspect of AI based on Large Language Models (LLM) and Machine Learning (ML.) AI also includes Neural Networks, Natural Language Processing and others. There is no singular Artificial Intelligence, it is simply an umbrella term.
How are we adapting to ChatGPT?
This also makes it more difficult to predict with any great accuracy which jobs and in what industries there will be losses. Generative AI tools like ChatGPT are coming under fire for failures at the same time as it’s being hyped to solve for everything. ChatGPT tools are known to make up its own facts and while the grammar and spelling may be good, it can often spin off into whimsical ideas and say the same thing just using different words.
For now, ChatGPT isn’t quite ready for replacing many jobs. But it will evolve and improve the more people use it and the tool learns. This is much the case with many AI tools. They are very good at solving one particular problem, but not good at dealing with highly complex problems such as complex systems.
Most businesses are still experimenting with AI. It takes a lot for a business or government to trust AI with mission critical tasks and problems.
The other factor to consider is the impact of AI on sociocultural systems. ChatGPT has renewed debates about not just job losses, but how we will govern it, how it can be weaponised and how it could entirely upset global finance markets. When a revolutionary technology threatens so many existing systems, it’s going to get a lot of pushbacks. Much as has happened with crypto versus the finance world.
Because AI is seen as threatening to so many aspects of society, as well as being of benefit, the debates are reaching governments as citizens express their concern. This will create tensions between industry and civil society.
We may well see regulations and laws implemented faster than with other technologies, such as social media. Large bureaucracies such as national governments aren’t known for being all that tech savvy, or fast. But AI could be very effective at doing a lot of bureaucratic jobs, since they’re highly formulaic. Bureaucrats tend to like their jobs and so this may be the reason we see governments move faster than they did with say, social media. Or Big Data and privacy.
So what can we conclude about AI replacing jobs? Only that it will be particularly more messy than previous technological revolutions. It impacts so many parts of society in profoundly different ways. AI tools like ChatGPT are in their hype phase right now and much like every other technology, they will enter the oft quoted Gartner Hype Cycle’s “trough of disillusionment.” We can expect that social justice movements, unions and other organisations will have something to say as well, increasing societal tensions around AI, employment and economics.
AI is coming for some jobs, not all jobs and probably not at the scale some pundits would have us believe. What will be interesting to see is what new jobs are created.
About Giles Crouch
Giles’ background is in cultural anthropology with a focus on technology. He then applied is education to the world of technology marketing. He launched over 10 technology products into global markets over twenty years. Giles then returned to his anthropology roots doing social media research and worked for a wide range of organisations including the United Nations, Global Affairs Canada, UK Trade and Investment in public policy and global brands such as Black & Decker, Glenfiddich and Time Horton’s in the areas of market research for brand intelligence.
Giles is regularly interviewed by news media on the intersection of technology and culture and has delivered over 100 speaking and keynote sessions over the past 15 years. He writes on Substack at:
The Digital Anthropologist
and Medium at: https://medium.com/@gilescrouch . Today is he provides innovation consulting and works with companies developing technology products to make them more human-centric. You can find him on LinkedIn here.
🤗. Thanks as always for reading!
 | A guest post by
|
I think that repetitive non-creative jobs will be lost eventually in the future, but there will be a bunch of people using AI to start businesses and thus creating more jobs. It's hard to tell if AI is going to replace more jobs than it creates.